A freight-rate slump on the western corridor

What happened

Freight rates on the Mumbai to Ahmedabad and Delhi corridor fell about 14% over a quarter after a surplus of trucks entered the market. Small operators with two to five trucks and one main customer were hit first: they could not cut costs as fast as rates fell.

Who held

• Operators with a contract rate fixed for the year.
• Fleets that carried their own customers' goods (a manufacturer's dedicated fleet).
• Borrowers in the first year of the loan, who had more margin in their plans.

Who didn't

Spot-market operators on a single corridor, especially with used trucks bought in the previous year at high prices. 30+ DPD on that group doubled in four months.

What warned us

Freight rates down more than 10% on the corridor (E3), new borrowing elsewhere (B2), and then part payments (R3). The E3 signal is worth only 6 points on its own. Read it as context: when it appears with B2, call the operator early.